Sports contracts hit 78% of prediction market volume
Open interest also hit a record high, according to Jefferies.
The hit
Prediction markets posted their biggest month on record in October, according to Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon. Average daily volume across yes-or-no exchanges hit $4.13bn, up 55% month-on-month, driven by the return of college football, the NFL & the start of the NBA season.
Why it matters
Sports contracts dominate the market, showing how dependent these exchanges still are on live sport rather than politics or finance. For bettors & operators, the record signals growing activity, but also risk: much of the market remains concentrated among its largest operators, according to GamblingNews.
The record
| Average daily volume (October) | $4.13bn, up 55% month-on-month (Jefferies) |
|---|---|
| Open interest | $3.27bn, up 45% from September (Jefferies) |
| Sports contract volume | $2.98bn a day, 78% of total market (Jefferies) |
| Polymarket average daily volume | $655m, up 395% year-on-year (Jefferies) |
| Rothera (Robinhood & Susquehanna JV) volume | $49m a day, 1.2% of industry volume (Jefferies) |
What happens next
Attention could shift to crypto & financial contracts after Election Day on 4 November, according to GamblingNews.
Sources: New Record: Prediction Markets Up 55% in October, $4.13B in Daily Trading
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