Kalshi & Polymarket both back a Democratic House & Senate
Politics made up just 1% of trading volume on both platforms in October, down from over 60% in 2024.
The hit
Polymarket gave Democrats a 76% chance of winning the Senate & a 94% chance of the House as polls neared closing on Tuesday, according to The Block. Kalshi showed similar odds: 94% for the House, 75% for the Senate.
Why it matters
A Democratic sweep would hand the party control of key committees, including oversight of the crypto industry. Experts told The Block that could mean tighter scrutiny of President Trump’s crypto wealth through World Liberty Financial & less momentum behind crypto legislation.
The record
| Senate odds for Democrats | 76% (Polymarket), 75% (Kalshi) |
|---|---|
| House odds for Democrats | 94% (Polymarket), 94% (Kalshi) |
| Political trading volume, October 2026 | 1% of total on Kalshi & Polymarket (Bloomberg) |
| Political trading volume, 2024 election | over 60% of total on both platforms (Bloomberg) |
| Ohio Senate race | Sherrod Brown given 71% chance of beating Jon Husted (Kalshi) |
| New Jersey Senate race | Cory Booker given 98% chance of winning (Kalshi) |
What happens next
Watch Tuesday’s results against the Polymarket & Kalshi odds, including the Ohio race between Sherrod Brown & Jon Husted.
Sources: Prediction markets bet on Democratic sweep of House, Senate in midterm elections
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