Sports contracts hold 78% of prediction market activity
Non-sports turnover also rose, with the growth likely linked to political contracts, according to Casino.org.
The hit
Prediction market daily turnover hit an all-time high of $4.13bn in October, up 55% on the month, according to Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon. Open interest also set a record, rising 45% on the month, with growth concentrated at the largest exchange but also showing up at Polymarket US & Rothera.
Why it matters
For bettors & the industry it confirms sports contracts remain the main engine of prediction market growth. The college football & NFL seasons ramping up & the NBA tip-off likely drove sports turnover higher, with weekend parlay-style combos skewing toward NFL & college football, a trend DraftKings’ DKeX is one of the beneficiaries of, per Fannon.
The record
| Daily turnover | $4.13bn, up 55% on the month (Jefferies) |
|---|---|
| Open interest | $3.27bn, up 45% on the month (Jefferies) |
| Sports event contract ADV | $2,978m, up 55% on the month, 78% market share flat on the month (Jefferies) |
| Non-sports ADV | $843m, up 55% on the month (Jefferies) |
| Sports share of open interest | 83% in October, up from 73% in September (Jefferies) |
What happens next
Watch non-sports growth into November, which Casino.org says likely hinges on crypto & financial derivatives.
Sources: Jefferies: Prediction Market Volume Jumps 55%, Hits New Record in October
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