Polymarket reviews dozens of wallets after Israeli election bets
Prediction markets had favoured Eisenkot for months before Netanyahu’s odds jumped on election night.
The hit
Polymarket is investigating suspicious trading on Israel’s parliamentary election, according to Bloomberg. More than 600 wallets were created on a single day betting on Netanyahu or Likud shortly before polls closed on Tuesday. Polymarket’s internal team said it is reviewing dozens of newly created wallets tied to the election trading.
Why it matters
The public blockchain lets researchers examine trading patterns & identify potentially coordinated activity. Investigators have not established that confidential information was used. Suspicious trading patterns alone are not evidence of insider trading, Bloomberg notes, since profitable bets can also come from independent analysis. No evidence has been presented linking the bets to manipulation of the vote count or election results.
The record
| New wallets created on a single day | 600+ (Bloomberg analysis of Polymarket blockchain) |
|---|---|
| Accounts funded for the first time on election day, before voting ended | 101 (Bubblemaps) |
| Combined profits withdrawn after exit polls | more than $100,000 |
| Netanyahu’s win probability after polls closed | 54% (Bloomberg) |
| Eisenkot’s win probability after polls closed | 23% (Bloomberg) |
What happens next
Watch for findings from analytics firms Bubblemaps & Polysights, who have launched their own examinations of the transactions.
Sources: Polymarket Is Investigating Suspicious Bets on Israeli Election
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