ASIC says prediction markets have ‘all the features of a bet’
ASIC chair Sarah Court says Australians using offshore prediction markets get no protection under local law.
The hit
Australia’s securities regulator is not currently convinced retail prediction markets are in the public interest. ASIC chair Sarah Court said in a blog post that prediction market contracts have “all the features of a bet”.
Why it matters
The comments signal Australia will stay a hard market for Kalshi, Polymarket & rivals, who need securities regulators like ASIC onside rather than gambling bodies. Court flagged risks around misuse of confidential information, market manipulation & disputed outcomes. Australians using offshore prediction markets get no protection under local law, she warned.
The record
| ASIC blog post | Published last Friday, Sarah Court, ASIC chair |
|---|---|
| Kalshi valuation | Over $40bn / £29.8bn |
| Criminal charges against Kalshi | Filed by Arizona & Utah regulators |
| Polymarket target valuation | $21bn, reportedly lobbying the FCA & ESMA |
| Jurisdictions separating prediction markets from gambling | Gibraltar (first), then Tobique (Canada) & Nevis (Caribbean) |
What happens next
Watch whether ASIC follows the blog post with formal guidance or enforcement action against operators or licensees facilitating access to offshore prediction markets.
Sources: Prediction markets have ‘all the features of a bet’ says Australia regulator
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