Polymarket gave Aleksandar Vučić a 70% chance of winning Serbia’s prime ministerial race; he lost.
The hit
Kalshi says traders on its platform correctly called 479 of 487 midterm predictions. Rival Polymarket badly misjudged Serbia’s prime ministerial race, giving ousted leader Aleksandar Vučić a 70% chance of winning a contest he lost.
Why it matters
Platforms argue they capture the “wisdom of the crowds,” but the record is patchy. Both Kalshi & Polymarket gave Francesca Hong a 95% chance in a Wisconsin primary she lost. A study of 2,500 political markets found pricing inconsistent with rational information aggregation, pointing to possible bias.
The record
| Kalshi midterm accuracy claim | 479 of 487 predictions correct (Kalshi) |
|---|---|
| Vučić’s Polymarket odds vs result | given 70% chance to win, took 39.2% of the vote |
| Wisconsin governor primary | Francesca Hong given 95% chance by Kalshi & Polymarket, lost to David Crowley |
| Trader profit concentration | 1% of traders hold 75% of all prediction market profits |
| Study scope | 2,500 political prediction markets found inconsistent with rational information aggregation |
What happens next
Watch how Kalshi & Polymarket frame their accuracy claims ahead of the next major election cycle, & whether independent studies of their midterm calls follow.
Sources: Kalshi Gets 479 Out of 487 – Does It Mean Prediction Markets Get It Right?
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