Ballon d’Or leak suspected after $264,000 staked on exact result
Investigator Raphaël Pautard says one funding account has reportedly been traced to an individual via a French platform.
The hit
France Football has opened an investigation & contacted police after 12 Polymarket accounts allegedly predicted the exact top-five order of this year’s Ballon d’Or. The accounts reportedly staked over $264,000 & won almost $200,000 when Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri & Lionel Messi finished in the precise order backed before Monday’s ceremony, according to French outlet Upside.
Why it matters
The precision of the bets, matched to a prize France Football says only a handful of people knew in advance, points to a possible leaked result rather than a lucky punt. If confirmed, it raises questions over how prediction markets handle insider information on scripted, embargoed outcomes, & whether operators like Polymarket can detect coordinated accounts before payouts clear.
The record
| Accounts under scrutiny | 12 Polymarket accounts, created 1-20 October (Upside) |
|---|---|
| Total staked | over $264,000 wagered before the ceremony (Upside) |
| Alleged winnings | almost $200,000 in profits (Upside) |
| Account pattern | 7 of 12 accounts had no other betting history; 6 placed their first bets 15 minutes after being created (Upside) |
| Tracing progress | one account’s funder reportedly identified via a French platform (Upside) |
What happens next
Watch for France Football’s investigation findings & any police action in France, plus whether Polymarket or the French platform names the individual behind the traced account.
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