Kalshi’s $983.4m NFL week collides with a court split
Kalshi handled $983.4m in NFL contracts in Week 1 as its legal footing narrows.
The hit
Two federal appeals courts now disagree on whether Kalshi’s sports event contracts count as bets, according to Sports Handle. Three petitions sit before the Supreme Court, with the justices due to review them at their Sept 28 long conference.
Why it matters
Circuit splits move the Supreme Court more reliably than almost anything else, according to Sports Handle. The Third Circuit ruled in April that Kalshi’s contracts are swaps, likely preempting New Jersey’s gambling laws, while the Ninth Circuit ruled 3-0 on Aug 28 that states can enforce their gambling laws against Kalshi’s contracts. Kalshi & Robinhood then took different approaches: Kalshi petitioned the Ninth Circuit for an en banc rehearing, while Robinhood filed its own certiorari petition at the Supreme Court. Attorney Daniel Wallach reads the two filings as a coordinated strategy, with the en banc request discouraging state enforcement while Robinhood pushes for fast consolidation with New Jersey’s petition. Sports contracts drive roughly 80% of Kalshi’s volume since July 2024, so the ruling threatens its core business, not a side line.
The record
| Third Circuit ruling | April — found Kalshi’s contracts are swaps, likely preempting New Jersey’s gambling laws |
|---|---|
| Ninth Circuit ruling | Aug 28, 2026 — 3-0, states can enforce gambling laws against Kalshi’s contracts |
| New Jersey deadline | Sept 3, 2026 filing deadline set by Justice Samuel Alito in Flaherty v. KalshiEx |
| NFL Week 1 volume | $983.4m handled by Kalshi (DeFi Rate) |
| Season volume last year | $7.21bn in NFL contracts (DeFi Rate) |
| Tribal ruling | Ninth Circuit found Blue Lake Rancheria & Chicken Ranch Rancheria would likely succeed on claims Kalshi’s contracts are unauthorised gaming under IGRA, reversing refusal of a preliminary injunction, nine days before publication |
What happens next
Watch the days after the Sept 28 long conference for orders on the pending petitions, plus any Ninth Circuit en banc rehearing decision.
Sources: Kalshi Supreme Court Case: What Happens After The Circuit Split
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