91% of repeat illegal-site bettors also use licensed firms
The regulator’s study found problem-gambling scores far higher among unlicensed-site customers.
The hit
The UK Gambling Commission says 91% of people with repeated payments to illegal gambling sites also gambled with licensed operators, according to a report published 28 October. Their spending on licensed sites did not fall substantially after their first illegal payment, the regulator found using open banking payment data rather than surveys alone.
Why it matters
The finding complicates the industry argument that tax rises simply drive players offshore. The pattern is consistent with illegal gambling being added to licensed play rather than replacing it, the Commission said, though the data cannot measure the market’s size or give a definitive picture. Bettors using unlicensed sites also showed far higher problem-gambling scores. Operators can point to that harm concentration as evidence of what is at stake, while campaigners can point to the 91% figure as evidence players are not simply leaving. The panel is not nationally representative, cryptocurrency payments are excluded, the method detects only some illegal operators, & the data does not show that illegal sites cause the harm.
The record
| Report publication | 28 October 2026 (Gambling Commission) |
|---|---|
| Online gaming duty rate | 40% since April 2026 |
| Jobs at risk under a 25% rate, projected | almost 9,000 (Betting & Gaming Council) |
| Betting shops & casinos at risk of closure, projected | almost 1,000 (Betting & Gaming Council) |
What happens next
General betting duty is scheduled to rise again in April 2027. Watch whether the Commission or the Betting & Gaming Council publish follow-up data before then.
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