Polymarket trader clears $257,000 on bets before NYT polls
Polymarket has opened an internal investigation after researchers flagged the trading pattern.
The hit
Polymarket has opened an investigation after Vanderbilt University researchers flagged a trader who placed large bets shortly before two New York Times/Siena College polls went public. The trader bet $191,277 on Nebraska senator Pete Ricketts winning re-election on 31 October 2026, netting over $77,000 once a poll showed him six points ahead, according to the New York Times.
Why it matters
The case points to a hole in how prediction markets handle scheduled events like media polls, where a small number of pollsters & staff see results early. The money moved through an anonymous crypto wallet, so researchers could trace the timing & the amounts but not who was behind the trades. Polymarket has not announced any findings or penalties, & rival platform Kalshi, also named in the research, has declined to comment.
The record
| Nebraska bet placed | $191,277 on Ricketts re-election, 31 October 2026 |
|---|---|
| Nebraska profit | $77,000+ after poll showed Ricketts six points ahead |
| Wallet deposit | $2m into anonymous crypto wallet, 30 October around 5:30pm ET |
| Michigan bet & profit | $622,000+ on Democratic nominee, $180,000+ profit after poll |
| Total profit across both races | $257,000+ (Vanderbilt researchers) |
What happens next
Watch for Polymarket’s internal review findings, including any conclusions or penalties.
Sources: Polymarket investigates suspicious bets placed hours before NYT/Siena polls
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