Cincinnati’s $250,000 tournament payout sits on two mystery trades
Nine sports block trades have moved $1.38m on Kalshi since July, including 5 LSU blocks paying $3m on a title.
The hit
Two block trades worth $92,500 each hit Kalshi on Wednesday, buying 125,000 YES contracts apiece on Cincinnati to qualify for the 2027 NCAA men’s basketball tournament. Market surveillance firm BETINT says the combined total makes up 95% of all trading across the market’s 126 listed teams.
Why it matters
Block trades let big players move large sums without shifting the public price, & this one dwarfs everything else in a market that barely traded before Wednesday. Nobody has confirmed who placed the trades or why, though InGame has raised hedging a coaching bonus as one theory, citing earlier LSU trades. BETINT says no wrongdoing is alleged.
The record
| Combined block size | $185,000 across two trades (BETINT) |
|---|---|
| Payout if Cincinnati qualifies | $250,000 to YES side |
| Cincinnati’s prior trading volume | 39 contracts in six weeks before the blocks |
| Open interest after trades | 250,065 contracts |
| Total sports block volume since July 27 | $1.38m across nine trades (BETINT) |
| Calhoun’s known tournament bonus | $100,000 (247Sports) |
What happens next
Watch for whether Kalshi or BETINT identifies the party behind the trades, & whether Cincinnati’s form through the season moves the market’s current 82% implied chance of qualifying.
Sources: $185K Kalshi Block Trades On Cincinnati Making March Madness
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