Netanyahu overtakes Eisenkot as $70m Polymarket bet turns
A separate market on when Netanyahu leaves office drew its own huge trading volume.
The hit
Polymarket’s Israel election market flipped overnight, according to Ynet. Bettors had given Gadi Eisenkot a 56% chance of becoming prime minister before polls opened, against 27.5% for Benjamin Netanyahu; hours after exit polls, Netanyahu took the lead as trading volume hit $73m.
Why it matters
The swing shows how fast prediction markets reprice on real-time information, not opinion polls. Bettors got the tight, no-majority race right but badly misjudged Likud’s seat count, a reminder that these markets track sentiment, not certainty, even with tens of millions staked.
The record
| Pre-election odds | Eisenkot 56%, Netanyahu 27.5% (Polymarket); Eisenkot 55%, Netanyahu 26% (Kalshi) |
|---|---|
| Post-exit poll odds | Netanyahu 48%, Eisenkot 33.5% (Polymarket) |
| Main market volume | $73m as of Wednesday morning (Polymarket) |
| Netanyahu contract alone | $23.1m of total volume (Polymarket) |
| Netanyahu exit-office market | approx. $125m traded (Polymarket) |
| Largest-party odds on election eve | Yashar! 73.5%, Likud 26% (Polymarket) – Likud leading in results |
What happens next
Polymarket’s main market stays open until a prime minister is formally appointed, so Netanyahu’s probability remains under 50% pending coalition talks, which bettors now price at a 60% chance of a hung parliament.
Sources: Israel election sends $70 million in Polymarket bets into turmoil
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