US appeals courts split 2-1 against Kalshi on sports contracts
A Supreme Court ruling on who regulates Kalshi isn’t expected until late 2027, analyst says.
The hit
Kalshi’s head of litigation says state gambling laws have no business touching its sports event contracts, insisting only the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has jurisdiction. Javalin Dedaj made the comments at New York’s Next Predict Summit, as Kalshi’s case against New Jersey has landed at the Supreme Court, with New Jersey seeking to have the court take it up, according to CDC Gaming.
Why it matters
Who wins decides whether Kalshi, Polymarket & DraftKings run one national product under federal rules, or face 50 separate state gambling regimes. A loss for the industry could push prediction markets to regionalise products for different users, Gemini Titan’s Brigitte Weyls said. Kalshi says it would keep developing new products either way.
The record
| Third Circuit ruling (April) | Sided with Kalshi, blocked New Jersey’s gambling rules |
|---|---|
| Ninth Circuit ruling (August) | Sided with Nevada, found contracts likely not swaps |
| Sixth Circuit ruling (25 September) | Found contracts are swaps but state laws still apply |
| Expected Supreme Court decision | Late 2027 (Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Elliot Stein) |
What happens next
Watch for Kalshi’s Supreme Court brief due 9 November, plus pending rulings from the Fourth Circuit & the Massachusetts Supreme Court.
Sources: State regulations do not apply to federally regulated event contracts, attorneys say – CDC Gaming
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