Kalshi chases $7.6tn inflation market CME couldn’t crack

Kalshi has given no launch date for its CPI futures, according to Bloomberg.

The hit

Kalshi is developing exchange-traded CPI futures to take on Wall Street’s $7.6 trillion inflation market, according to Bloomberg. The company confirmed the project but gave no launch date. Exchange-traded inflation futures have failed to stick for 4 decades, with CME dropping its own contract after a 2004 launch.

Why it matters

Inflation futures have burned exchanges before. Inflation specialist Michael Ashton’s research points to problems with launch timing & contract design, while Potomac River Capital’s Mark Spindel says the market needs enough depth for hedgers & speculators to trade. Kalshi is betting its institutional plumbing – Talos integration, Cantor Fitzgerald block trades, Kalshi Pro – will pull in the volume that sank earlier attempts. If it works, institutions, hedgers, speculators & market makers get a public, exchange-cleared way to trade inflation instead of relying on bilateral OTC swaps, which require a trading agreement with a counterparty for each transaction.

The record

Target market size	$7.6tn inflation market, dominated by Wall Street’s bilateral OTC swaps (Finance Magnates)
TIPS market	$2.2tn (Bloomberg)
Inflation-swap market	$5.4tn (Bloomberg)
Prior CPI futures launch	CME launched a CPI contract in 2004, later discontinued it
Contract plan	12 monthly CPI contracts, then May & November contracts for 4 years (documents reviewed by Bloomberg)
Product adviser	Michael Ashton, Kalshi’s CPI product & benchmark partner since August

What happens next

No launch date is set. Watch for Kalshi’s rollout confirmation & whether early volumes from institutional desks via Talos & Cantor Fitzgerald hold up.

Sources: Kalshi Takes on Wall Street’s $7.6 Trillion Inflation Futures Curse

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