CFTC gives prediction markets 30 days to drop geofencing
The directive could put platforms in conflict with court orders mandating geofencing in several states.
The hit
The CFTC has told registered prediction market exchanges to scrap geographic restrictions, according to guidance issued on 5 November. The directive could put platforms in conflict with court orders in Michigan, Nevada & Washington that require platforms like Kalshi to geofence users.
Why it matters
Operators are now stuck between two conflicting authorities. Senator Adam Schiff says platforms risk being in contempt of court orders if they comply with the CFTC guidance; the guidance itself does not specify how conflicts should be resolved or outline penalties for non-compliance. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins said the guidance was unlikely to affect the company, pointing to a process for demonstrating why it operates only in certain geographies.
The record
| CFTC guidance issued | 5 November 2026, citing Regulation 38.151(b) |
|---|---|
| Compliance deadline | 30 days, or written explanation to the CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight |
| Ninth Circuit ruling on Nevada | 3-0 against Kalshi, August 2026 |
| Ninth Circuit California order | Kalshi ordered to geofence tribal lands, 4 November 2026 |
| Prior CFTC emergency interventions | Michigan (July 2026) & New York (August 2026), both overriding state orders |
What happens next
Watch whether Kalshi submits a written explanation instead of complying within the deadline.
Sources: CFTC gives prediction markets 30 days to lift geofencing restrictions
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