Cincinnati Kalshi bets below market price raise flags
The trades priced Cincinnati at 74 cents, below the market rate, according to GamblingNews.
The hit
Two $92,500 block trades on Kalshi, placed 19 minutes apart, have put Cincinnati’s NCAA tournament contract under scrutiny. Market surveillance firm BETINT identified the trades, which together committed $185,000 to Cincinnati qualifying for the expanded 2027 tournament.
Why it matters
Block trades let large players bet big without moving the public price. BETINT has flagged nine such sports trades since July, including five large positions on LSU football reportedly tied to managing coaching bonus exposure. No wrongdoing has been alleged in Cincinnati’s case, & the purpose of the trades remains unclear.
The record
| Trades executed | 2:44pm & 3:03pm ET, Wednesday 4 November (BETINT) |
|---|---|
| Price paid vs market rate | 74 cents per contract vs 82 cents last regular trade |
| Share of total market volume | ~95% of volume across Kalshi’s 126-team market |
| Potential payout if Cincinnati qualifies | $250,000 on $185,000 staked |
| Coach Jerrod Calhoun’s reported bonus | $100,000, below the potential payout |
What happens next
The buyer’s identity may never be confirmed, since Kalshi does not disclose block trade identities. Watch whether BETINT flags further large Cincinnati activity, & whether the Bearcats’ season form moves the implied qualification odds.
Sources: Two $92,500 Kalshi Trades Target Cincinnati’s NCAA Tournament Qualification
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