Polymarket’s share falls from 96% to 27% in two years
Kalshi held about 83% of US-regulated market share in October, according to the data cited.
The hit
Polymarket’s share of the prediction market has fallen from 96% to 27% in two years, according to a widely shared post on X cited by Crypto Briefing. Rival Kalshi now trades nearly three times Polymarket’s volume, a reversal from the platform that once owned the 2024 election cycle.
Why it matters
The shift matters because Kalshi’s edge comes from being CFTC-regulated, plugged into mainstream brokerages, & expanding into sports & parlay-style bets, not from being on-chain. For bettors & crypto watchers, it signals that regulatory clarity, distribution deals & product breadth now count more than being first-mover in prediction markets, reshaping where volume & liquidity sit.
The record
| Kalshi’s October trading volume | $65bn, up about 10% month over month |
|---|---|
| Polymarket US’s October trading volume | $10bn, up about 15% month over month |
| Kalshi’s share of US-regulated platforms | around 83% in October 2026 |
| Kalshi’s open interest | about $2.05bn in October, versus $384m for Polymarket US |
| Polymarket’s September 2024 market share | about 95% (data cited by Crypto Briefing) |
What happens next
Watch whether Polymarket US keeps outgrowing Kalshi on a percentage basis after the midterm surge fades, & whether more brokerages follow Robinhood & Coinbase into Kalshi distribution deals.
Sources: Polymarket’s market share drops to 27% as Kalshi surges
18+. Betting involves risk. If gambling is a problem for you or someone close to you, help is available.
Work with BH Group. Paid ads that get iGaming & crypto brands players & users, in the GEOs you choose. Get a plan
Discussion
Ask a question, add useful context or share a source. Keep it relevant & respectful.
Add a comment
Comments are reviewed before publication.