Genius Sports lifts revenue guide to $1bn, shares still fall
Q3 revenue doubled to $270m & adjusted EBITDA hit $87m, but analysts still cut price targets.
The hit
Genius Sports shares fell from over $7 to under $6 the day after Q3 results, even as the sportstech firm raised its yearly revenue guidance, according to SBC News. Goldman Sachs, Stifel & Oppenheimer all cut their price targets despite the Q3 beat.
Why it matters
The drop has investors asking what is spooking optimism, according to SBC News. Genius leans on operators’ spending, & SBC News suggests Genius may be exposed to clients feeling the drag of cost controls as they revise budgets. Macquarie says investors are focused on slowing sports betting handle growth & prediction market risks, but views Genius as sitting in a “quasi duopoly” with Sportradar, benefiting either way betting volume moves, via deals with Kalshi & Polymarket.
The record
| Full-year 2026 revenue guidance | Raised to $1bn (Genius Sports) |
|---|---|
| Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance | $287m-$297m (Genius Sports) |
| Q3 period cash flow | $54m (Genius Sports) |
| Macquarie price target | Held at $11 despite lower 2026-2028 EBITDA forecasts |
| Legend acquisition cost | $1.1bn, earlier blamed for stock’s 2026 slide (SBC News) |
What happens next
Watch Q4 results for whether Genius beats guidance again, & any shift in NFL policy on prediction markets, which Macquarie says could make upside to current expectations “significant, in our view”.
Sources: Genius Sports divides opinion with analysts’ ranks after Q3
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