Sportsbook handle grows 43% & outpaces prediction market taker volume

Real retail turnover on exchanges was an estimated $17.7bn, far below the $77bn headline figure.

The hit

Regulated sportsbooks grew handle faster than prediction markets grew real trading volume in September, according to Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial. Notional volume on prediction markets jumped 64% to $77bn, but taker volume — turnover from actual retail traders — was an estimated $17.7bn, up only 27%. Sportsbook handle rose 43% over the same period, Stantial said, citing state data.

Why it matters

The gap matters because notional volume overstates how much real money moves through prediction markets, while taker volume is the better comparison to sportsbook handle. If sportsbooks keep growing faster during football season, it suggests bettors still prefer traditional books over yes/no exchanges, undercutting the disruption narrative around CFTC-regulated prediction markets.

The record

Prediction market notional volume	$77bn in September, up 64% month-over-month (Stifel)
Estimated taker volume	$17.7bn in September, up 27% (Stifel)
Sportsbook handle growth	up 43% in September across reporting states (Stifel)
Single-wager sports volume on CFTC-regulated exchanges	$22.8bn, up 23% (Stifel)
Parlay (‘combo’) volume	$41.6bn, up 122% (Stifel)
Novig market share	1.9% in September after Sydney Sweeney ad campaign (Stifel)

What happens next

Watch for October data on taker volume versus sportsbook handle to confirm whether the gap is widening as football season continues.

Sources: Stifel: Prediction Market Taker Volume Lags Sportsbook Handle Growth in September

18+. Betting involves risk. If gambling is a problem for you or someone close to you, help is available.