Polymarket bets on HSBC & Lloyds collapse trigger UK alarm

An MP wants UK regulators to act after Polymarket took bets on whether major banks will fail.

The hit

Polymarket has let users bet $77,507 (£58,530) on whether the world’s biggest banks will collapse by the end of 2026, according to the Guardian. That includes banks such as HSBC, Lloyds, JP Morgan & BNP Paribas. UK, US, Canadian & EU residents are barred from the offshore platform, but punters across roughly 150 countries can still take positions.

Why it matters

Bettors stand to profit from events that could trigger real financial instability, & academics warn that incentive is the danger. The Treasury committee’s Bobby Dean warns a rapidly escalating market “could even trigger bank runs”. Banks have already been told to prepare for social media-fuelled runs, after Silicon Valley Bank & Credit Suisse collapsed in 2023 amid stock sell-offs accelerated by speculation on platforms such as X & WhatsApp.

The record

FCA response	Says it is talking to international regulators to protect “market integrity”
Reported insider profit before US-Israel strike on Iran	$1.2m across newly created wallets, February (ESMA)
Criminal case	US soldier charged over alleged Polymarket bets tied to Maduro capture, January
Suspected tampering	Police notified over suspected tampering of weather sensors at Charles de Gaulle used to settle Polymarket contracts, April
Polymarket’s defence	Chief legal officer Neal Kumar says information is “already public” & markets democratise access

What happens next

Watch whether Dean’s call for UK regulators to contact their US counterparts is taken up.

Sources: UK urged to act as Polymarket takes bets on whether HSBC and Lloyds will fail

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