Brazil runoff on 25 October could decide fate of betting ban

Flávio Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party took 121 of 513 Chamber seats, the Chamber’s largest bloc since 1990.

The hit

Brazil’s presidential race is heading to a runoff, leaving the fate of the country’s licensed betting market unresolved, according to iGaming Business. President Lula banned regulated betting by provisional measure in late September; Congress must now decide whether to make it permanent.

Why it matters

Neither candidate has an incentive to defend betting before the runoff, according to Ramiro Atucha of Atucha Strategic Advisory. “I can only imagine both of them doubling down against the regulated industry,” Atucha says. He adds he has “some hope under Bolsonaro”, while the Liberal Party’s stronger showing in Congress could make the ban harder to sustain. Operators who paid for licences & built local operations face more uncertainty, & experts warn the bigger cost may be international investors losing trust in Brazil’s regulatory commitments.

The record

First-round result	Bolsonaro 47.03% vs Lula 45.16% (neither reached the 50% needed to avoid a runoff)
Liberal Party seats	121 of 513 Chamber of Deputies seats, the Chamber’s largest bloc since 1990
Licence cost	BRL30m paid per operator licence, according to Atucha Strategic Advisory
Industry response	Brazil’s two main gambling trade bodies asked the Supreme Federal Court to overturn the ban

What happens next

National Congress must still review Lula’s provisional measure.

Sources: Will Brazil’s election decide the fate of regulated betting?

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