Bernstein: prediction markets hit $410bn in 2026, $10tn by 2035
Crypto & other financial assets are set to overtake sports as the biggest share of prediction market volume by 2035, Bernstein says.
The hit
Prediction market trading volume could top $10 trillion a year by 2035, up from a forecast $410bn in 2026, according to Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani’s team.
Why it matters
Bernstein says the growth is being driven by new products such as single-metric KPI markets & single-stock perpetual futures, letting users trade a single corporate metric rather than the stock price itself.
The record
| 2026 forecast volume | $410bn across prediction markets (Bernstein) |
|---|---|
| 2035 forecast volume | $10tn across prediction markets (Bernstein) |
| Crypto & financial assets’ share of volume | up from 12% in 2025 to nearly 50% by 2035, forecast (Bernstein) |
| Kalshi crypto share of volume | up from under 5% in January to roughly 20% by August (Bernstein) |
| Polymarket crypto share of volume | 21% of total volume (Bernstein) |
What happens next
Watch Kalshi & Polymarket’s crypto volume share into year-end, plus any launch of the KPI or single-stock perpetual futures products flagged by Bernstein.
Sources: Bernstein Forecasts Annual Prediction Market Volume Will Top $10 Trillion by 2035
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