Gallery Furniture’s refund promotion already carries customer liability after two months.
The hit
Jim ‘Mattress Mack’ McIngvale hedged his furniture store promotion on Kalshi instead of a sportsbook. The Houston bettor bought a $516,000 contract on the Astros to win the World Series, with a potential payout of $13m, according to the New York Post. It’s the first time he’s publicly disclosed using a prediction market for one of his hedges.
Why it matters
McIngvale usually places six- & seven-figure bets through sportsbooks, but told the Post sportsbook odds on the Astros came in at 18-1 after they clinched, while Kalshi’s market makers got him 24-1. Kalshi’s Nicolas Hull called it ‘the advantage of an exchange’, where ‘price discovery happens through competition’. Kalshi operates legally in Texas, where sports betting remains illegal.
The record
| Promotion liability so far | $4m tied up after two months (McIngvale) |
|---|---|
| Projected max liability | $12m if Astros ‘keep going’ (McIngvale) |
What happens next
Watch the Astros’ postseason run. Gallery Furniture’s refund offer, for customers spending $4,000-plus, pays out only if the AL West side wins the World Series.
Sources: Mattress Mack Puts $516K on Kalshi for Astros to Win World Series
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