Kalshi odds sway voters even when they distrust them

Only 19% of voters considered prediction market odds accurate, yet sceptics are still swayed by them.

The hit

A study by the Brennan Center for Justice finds prediction market odds shift how voters see election winners, even when voters do not trust those odds. Researchers tested Kalshi odds against NBC News polling figures in hypothetical congressional races, varying the two to test reactions when the predictions conflicted.

Why it matters

Prediction market odds now appear on CNN, CNBC & Fox News, often alongside or instead of polling. The study found warnings about prediction markets’ limitations did not reduce reliance on them. The Brennan Center for Justice argues this points to a need for more stringent regulation of prediction markets.

The record

Perception shift at 67% odds	10% more likely to be named likely winner than a candidate at 50% odds (Brennan Center for Justice)
Perception shift at 84% odds	20% more likely to be named likely winner (Brennan Center for Justice)
Trust in prediction markets	19% called them accurate, versus 37% for polls (Brennan Center for Justice)
Support for stricter regulation	48% of respondents (Brennan Center for Justice)
Support for banning some or all markets	23% partial ban, 16% full ban (Brennan Center for Justice)

What happens next

Watch Ohio, which is preparing legal action against Kalshi & Polymarket after its casino control commission issued cease-&-desist notices to both.

Sources: Prediction Markets Have an Effect on Voters’ Opinions, Study Says

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