Midterm election betting volume more than doubles 2024’s $92m
Polymarket’s top 1% of wallets reportedly account for 70% of this cycle’s congressional trading volume on its international platform.
The hit
Bettors have reportedly wagered more than $220m on November’s midterm outcomes across Kalshi & Polymarket, according to Reuters, citing the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC). That is more than double the amount traded during the entire 2024 congressional cycle. Big money has reportedly flowed into the Texas Senate race, alongside contests in Maine, Michigan & South Carolina.
Why it matters
The surge shows election betting has moved from a niche curiosity to a market policymakers now watch closely. More markets, more money & a concentration of trading in few hands raise questions about who is driving prices & why. Concerns about insider trading & public trust in elections sit alongside the platforms’ own claims of surveillance & accuracy.
The record
| 2024 cycle total | $92m traded across the whole congressional cycle |
|---|---|
| Market count | 21,000+ congressional markets this cycle, up from 463 in 2024 |
| Polymarket wallet concentration | Top 1% of wallets on Polymarket’s international platform account for 70% of congressional trading volume |
| Santos ban | Kalshi banned ex-Rep. George Santos for life over State of the Union betting |
| Polymarket accuracy claim | 98% accurate one day before voting, company says |
What happens next
Watch trading volume & accuracy claims into the November midterms, plus any further Kalshi suspensions of candidates betting on their own races.
Sources: Bettors wager over $220M on midterm election outcomes on Kalshi, Polymarket
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