Kalshi probes bets that nailed a 1% press secretary pick
Three small bets were placed before the news broke, one hours before & two about 20 minutes before.
The hit
Kalshi is investigating trades that correctly predicted Katie Zacharia would replace Karoline Leavitt as White House press secretary, a company spokeswoman confirmed to media Friday. The Wall Street Journal first reported the inquiry, saying the bets positioned the bettors for thousands in profit.
Why it matters
The bets stand out because Zacharia had just a 1% chance on Kalshi’s own market leading up to the news. For bettors, it raises the question of whether prediction markets can be gamed by people with early knowledge of political decisions, & whether platforms can police it before payouts land.
The record
| Bet 1 | Reportedly $19 staked at 10:43pm Thursday, paying out $1,896 |
|---|---|
| Bet 2 | Reportedly $74 staked at 1:41pm Friday, paying out $3,689 |
| Bet 3 | Reportedly $80 staked at 1:41pm Friday, paying out $4,023 |
| Announcement | Zacharia’s appointment broke around 2pm ET Friday; Trump confirmed it on Truth Social |
| Prior case | A former White House teleprompter operator was fired in July after $100,000 in profits betting on Trump’s speeches; settled with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in August |
What happens next
Watch for Kalshi’s findings on how the users timed their trades, & whether the case draws regulatory attention similar to the prior CFTC settlement.
Sources: Kalshi Investigates Questionable Bets on Trump’s New Press Secretary
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