Macquarie’s new estimate marks a sharp jump from last year’s base.
The hit
Macquarie has raised its 2026 prediction market volume forecast to $190bn, according to the firm. Analyst Chad Beynon cited continued expansion across prediction markets as the driver of the upgrade.
Why it matters
Macquarie’s analysis also flags prediction markets moving closer to sportsbooks on product features, including new customisable same-game parlays. Macquarie expects reliance on sports contracts to ease over time as economics, politics, crypto & entertainment markets grow. The firm says regulation is the sector’s biggest risk, warning negative court rulings could restrict sports contracts & damage long-term growth.
The record
| 2026 taker volume forecast | $190bn, up from $169bn previous estimate |
|---|---|
| 2025 taker volume | $22bn |
| Share from sports contracts | ~80% of 2026 taker volume |
| First week of September taker volume | $4.3bn, before 2026 NFL season began |
| NFL opening Sunday | new daily taker volume record set |
What happens next
Legal experts & investors cited in Macquarie’s analysis say a case over prediction markets’ legal status could reach the US Supreme Court within six to seven months.
Sources: Macquarie Boosts 2026 Prediction Market Volume Forecast to $190B
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