Gas prices sit more than $1 above last year’s level, the pressure behind Trump’s idea, Benzinga reports.
The hit
Kalshi bettors have staked over $360,000 on whether Trump suspends the federal gas tax, according to Benzinga. The contract gives just a 12% probability the tax is suspended before 1 January 2027, despite Trump saying on Tuesday he’s weighing the move ahead of November’s midterms.
Why it matters
The low odds suggest traders see the suspension as a midterm talking point more than a policy Trump will deliver. For bettors, it’s a read on how much weight to give political gas-price promises versus what a federally authorised market actually prices in before the clock runs out.
The record
| Kalshi contract | “Will the federal gas tax be suspended?” (Kalshi) |
|---|---|
| National average gas price | $4.3685 per gallon on Tuesday (AAA) |
| Federal gas tax rate | 18.4 cents per gallon on petrol, 24.4 cents on diesel |
| Price cut if scrapped | Roughly 4% off a gallon of regular (The Guardian) |
What happens next
Oil prices are also climbing, with WTI crude up 0.82% to $90.18 a barrel amid disruptions tied to the Iran war.
Sources: Trump To Suspend Federal Gas Tax? Prediction Market Punters Weigh In – Benzinga
18+. Betting involves risk. If gambling is a problem for you or someone close to you, help is available.
Discussion
Ask a question, add useful context or share a source. Keep it relevant & respectful.
Add a comment
Comments are reviewed before publication.