Kalshi traders look past midterms, bet 2028 & California instead
Three of Kalshi’s four biggest election markets concern 2028, not next month’s midterms.
The hit
Three of Kalshi’s four biggest election markets concern 2028, not next month’s midterms, according to InGame. The 2028 Democratic nominee market has drawn $232m, with Jon Ossoff (17%) & Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (14%) leading a 48-name field. California races are also pulling huge volume on Kalshi.
Why it matters
Midterms are four weeks out, but traders are already pricing the next presidential cycle & local races in the country’s biggest state. InGame calls the volume on California races a solid hint as to where Kalshi’s user base sits, suggesting the platform’s leaders are not always tied to the nearest election on the calendar.
The record
| 2028 Democratic nominee market | $232m traded, Ossoff leads at 17% (Kalshi) |
|---|---|
| 2028 presidential election market | $71m traded, JD Vance leads at 19% (Kalshi) |
| Los Angeles mayoral race | $99m traded, Nithya Raman favoured 59%-40% over Karen Bass (Kalshi) |
| California governor’s race | $54m traded, Xavier Becerra at 96% (Kalshi) |
| Republican presidential nominee market | $68m traded, Vance favoured at 44% (Kalshi) |
What happens next
Watch Kalshi, Polymarket & PredictIt volumes as the Nov. 3 midterms approach, plus whether 2028 Democrat nominee odds shift as Newsom & Ocasio-Cortez jockey with Ossoff.
Sources: Midterm Market Monitor: Kalshi Users Looking Past Midterms
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