Fed hold odds hit 85% on Kalshi as hike bets nearly vanish
Pricing on Polymarket & CME fed funds futures has moved in parallel with Kalshi’s shift toward a hold.
The hit
Kalshi’s prediction market now gives an 85% chance the Federal Reserve holds rates steady in October, according to Cryptobriefing. The move followed a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showing September payrolls rose by just 29,000 jobs. Hold odds have climbed steadily over the past few days as traders largely price out a hike.
Why it matters
Bettors on Kalshi are backing a pause, but a hike isn’t fully priced out. Some readings still put a 25 basis point hike at 24% to 28%, so a surprise move would hit positions that have drifted toward a hold. The October 28 decision will settle Kalshi’s contracts & test how well traders called it.
The record
| September payrolls | 29,000 jobs added (Bureau of Labor Statistics, released October 2, 2026) |
|---|---|
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% (Bureau of Labor Statistics) |
| Kalshi hold odds after PCE data | 65% (September 30, 2026) |
| Kalshi hold odds after jobs report | 85% (October 2, 2026) |
| Other Kalshi readings | 72% to 75.5% hold; 24% to 28% hike |
What happens next
Watch the FOMC meeting on October 27-28, 2026, with the rate decision due October 28 between 2pm & 2.30pm ET, when Kalshi’s contracts settle against the actual outcome.
Sources: Kalshi traders price 85% chance the Fed holds after weak jobs report
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