Sports bettors post worst Polymarket win rate at 25.1%

Retail traders who lose are far more likely to quit the platform than those who win, Galaxy Research finds.

The hit

Most people betting on Polymarket are losing, not winning. Galaxy Research studied 2.9 million human-paced retail accounts & found 69.2% finished below break-even, losing $338.9m combined, according to the October 1 report. Automated accounts, excluded from that sample, netted $246.8m in profits.

Why it matters

Sports specialists posted the worst win rate of the groups studied, at 25.1%, while traders focused on technology & science fared notably better, at 41.2%, according to Galaxy Research. The median retail account lost approximately $3. Galaxy also found that losing bettors quit at more than twice the rate of winning ones.

The record

Study scope	2.9m retail accounts analysed from Polymarket’s full on-chain history since 2020 (Galaxy Research)
Median retail result	Loss of approximately $3 per account (Galaxy Research)
Top 1% losers vs gainers	Losses up to $4,804 vs gains up to $3,381 (Galaxy Research)
Post-loss vs post-win churn	15.2% quit after a loss vs 6.1% after a win (Galaxy Research)
Position size gap	Profitable traders’ median bet $13.96 vs $10 for unprofitable traders (Galaxy Research)

What happens next

Polymarket introduced taker fees in early 2026, so Galaxy’s results span different fee environments.

Sources: Galaxy Research finds 69% of Polymarket retail accounts lose money

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